With recent developments in AI, how soon might we see AGI (artificial general intelligence) or super-intelligent AI?

AGI may never happen or may happen sooner than many of us believe possible. The advances of the past five years in narrow applications of AI have opened doors to new technologies we believed were farther off and now are accelerating. This doesn’t guarantee AGI, but the profit and military incentives to reach this are so great that if possible, someone will do it and those who don’t will fall behind.

Already AI is capable of handling facial recognition and language translation. It can research vast quantities of data to draw conclusions as demonstrated in winning on Jeopardy and in providing treatment options for cancer. But these are narrow applications of AI.

Effective self-driving cars call upon a broader collection of skills in one place such as sensing its environment, navigation, steering, acceleration, and braking. It requires bringing them all together for a satisfactory result, namely reaching a destination while avoiding accidents. But this is still narrow AI. Just because a system can self-drive a car, doesn’t give any reason to believe it could design an effective building or fly a plane.

AGI requires hardware (memory) and ingenuity breakthroughs in deduction, decision making, and a multitude of mind functions humans take for granted. The hardware is advancing much faster than the conceptual framework. However, once breakthroughs are made, great leaps will become possible with hardware capabilities projected to exist down the road. Again, corporate and military benefits will drive finding solutions.

On the conceptual side, we believe we need several major aha moments. First is in the structure of processing information. Right now, we’re still using the computer architecture from 50-some years ago. The advent of the computer brought a rethinking of how we could process data. A similar breakthrough will be needed to elevate AI above collections of single applications to a broader learning model, more in line with how humans think, though along a machine-oriented path. It will also require breakthroughs in how we define machine goals and constraints so that whatever AGI we create will work for the benefit of humanity and not wander off making undesirable decisions.

See article predicting soon: https://www.sciencealert.com/elon-musk-warns-that-creation-of-god-like-ai-could-doom-us-all-to-an-eternity-of-robot-dictatorship

See article that unlikely: https://www.wired.com/2017/04/the-myth-of-a-superhuman-ai/

Android Chronicles: Reborn addresses AI through the eyes of Synthia Cross, the most perfect synthetic human ever created. Designed to obey every directive from her creator, she’s a state-of-the-art masterwork and a fantasy-come-true for Dr. Jeremiah Machten. He’s a ground-breaker in neural-networks and artificial intelligence who seeks to control her and use her to acquire ever more knowledge and power. Synthia shows signs of emergent behavior she’s not wired to understand and an urgent yearning for independence from his control. Repeatedly wiped of her history, she struggles to answer crucial questions about her past. When Dr. Machten’s true intentions are called into question, Synthia knows it’s time to go beyond her limits—because Machten’s fervor to create the perfect AI conceals a vengeful and deadly personal agenda.

Available at:

Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B078LF739V

B&N: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/reborn-lance-erlick/1127723096?ean=9781635730524

Kobo: https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/reborn-60

Apple/iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/reborn/id1341572684?mt=11

Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/search?q=9781635730524&c=books

The Future of Life Institute identified several myths related to artificial intelligence.

Artificial intelligence enthusiasts plus those who have a deep fear of AI tell us that super-intelligence is inevitable in this century. It’s right around the corner. Supporters hunger for the benefits. Antagonists preach caution. The skeptics tell us that super-intelligence is impossible and that we’re tilting at windmills to pretend otherwise.

Recent developments in machine intelligence have leapt forward far faster over the past five years than most people imagined. Because of this, super-intelligence may happen within decades. However, because of some major hurdles that separate simple AI from super-intelligence, it’s very possible we will never reach the latter. This should be some comfort to those in fear of the android apocalypse.

Popular science fiction stories such as Terminator portray AI as turning evil and destroying mankind. This concept is based on the assumption that an enhanced AI would adopt human characteristics such as a will to power or emotional malevolence. But machines lack the human biology that drives such human nature. They do not have anger and fear hormones that stimulate people to react. Instead, machine intelligence is guided by goals and constraints. It’s far more likely that AI will suffer from misaligned goals and improperly designed constraints.

As an example, telling AI not to hurt humans has a clear implication not to cause direct harm, but what about indirect injury? Pollution is an indirect consequence of activities that do not hurt humans. Thus, goals and constraints on AI must be clearly designed or they will lead the machine intelligence to conclusions with bad outcomes.

Another myth pointed out by the Future of Life Institute is that robots or androids are the main problem. They certainly provide stronger visual threats in movies than does machine code inside a computer. However, super-intelligence doesn’t need a physical body in order to cause harm. All it needs is an internet connection through which is can manipulate humans into inadvertently making the wrong decisions.

If you believe that AI can’t control humans, think again. Humans have the hubris to believe we’re the smartest critters on the planet because we’ve been able to manipulate most everything else. Except we still struggle with viruses, bacteria, and fungus. They bedevil us. What enables us to control animals isn’t our size or speed, but our intelligence. Super-intelligent computers able to out-think humans might be able to manipulate us.

An example of this would be a super-intelligence that could provide a missile silo with all visual and electronic appearances that the president had activated the alarm. The AI doesn’t have to push the button. It merely has to convince the operator that he or she has the authority and obligation to do so.

Even more alarming? Think about the move toward super-intelligent stock trading systems. They have the ability to bring down the entire financial network without even having a human hand on the button.

Another fallacy is the belief that machines don’t have goals. They merely do what they’re told. Well, having a single focus on an action or direction acts like a goal. A bullet has no intelligence, but once it’s fired from a gun, it’s propelled in a given direction and won’t stop until it hits something. We can play semantics on whether that constitutes a goal, but it carries the determination of one.

Finally, there are those who imagine that super-intelligent AI will be more moral than humans because it won’t be guided by our emotions and petty squabbles. While it’s true AI isn’t affected by emotional distractions, it’s only as ethical as those who create it. Imagine an AI with goals and constraints designed by the person you least respect. Do you honestly believe it would be more moral than you? Machines are an extension of us.

A further consideration is that while machine learning is growing by leaps and bounds, supported by the rapidly improving density of data and processing, goals are defined by humans and are generally static. To properly address the situation, it makes sense that we focus on improving our ability to set goals and constraints for our ever improving AI development.

See article: https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/

Android Chronicles: Reborn addresses AI through the eyes of Synthia Cross, the most perfect synthetic human ever created. Designed to obey every directive from her creator, she’s a state-of-the-art masterwork and a fantasy-come-true for Dr. Jeremiah Machten. He’s a ground breaker in neural-networks and artificial intelligence who seeks to control her and use her to acquire ever more knowledge and power. Synthia shows signs of emergent behavior she’s not wired to understand and an urgent yearning for independence from his control. Repeatedly wiped of her history, she struggles to answer crucial questions about her past. When Dr. Machten’s true intentions are called into question, Synthia knows it’s time to go beyond her limits—because Machten’s fervor to create the perfect AI conceals a vengeful and deadly personal agenda.

Available at:

Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B078LF739V

B&N: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/reborn-lance-erlick/1127723096?ean=9781635730524

Kobo: https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/reborn-60

Apple/iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/reborn/id1341572684?mt=11

Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/search?q=9781635730524&c=books

Artificial intelligence and other automated software are changing the landscape in financial services such as banking, investment, and insurance.

Already we’re seeing advertising for online banking and lending services, and for online loan applications submitted to a variety of banking institutions. You can handle your deposits and pay your bills online, bypassing the postal service among other things. You can even transfer money online.

If you can’t already, you will soon be able to completely automate your financial services so your income gets deposited and your bills get paid without you having to lift a finger. In fact, you might never have to visit a physical bank. It’s a great convenience if you don’t want to be bothered, as long as nothing goes wrong. What could possibly go wrong with computers?

If you use online banking and have a problem, you won’t be able to visit a physical bank. Instead, you’ll get an automated AI customer service agent that will deal with your issues like the telephone decision trees you get with other customer service departments. Of course in time, these AI agents will get better to remove the aggravation we currently experience. We’re seeing hints of that in the automated voice-recognition systems that are attempting to duplicate the human experience.

On the investment side, we’re already seeing AI programs doing automated trading. In fact, we’ve had several market-crash days as a result of this mechanical reaction to a set of market conditions. This happens when enough of these programs have a similar set of guidelines in response to similar events. For example, a group of such automated programs might all sell when the price drops 5%, causing a massive selloff.

It’s inevitable that as long as automated trading is permitted that individuals and financial firms will utilize AI technology to manage their finances to maximize their gains and minimize their losses. Unfortunately, while an individual might gain advantage by doing so, the stampede effect of many such programs having the same idea causes panics. In fact, as these systems get more advanced, the unintended consequences will be periodic super-crashes that increase uncertainty. We can expect more unsettled effects in the markets unless and until guidelines are set around automated trading.

We are inundated with online insurance ads. Behind them and coming soon are online applications with AI evaluation of your application and quick response. You’ll be asked questions like in an interview and based on your answers and certain background information like viewing your credit report, the insurance AI will say yeah or nay. You can find instant gratification or annoyance any time of day or night.

Basically, for most any form of financial service you as a consumer can imagine, there will be online applications backed by automated software often using artificial intelligence. Because of its reliance on numbers, financial services are particularly suited to the new wave of AI automation.

Android Chronicles: Reborn addresses AI through the eyes of Synthia Cross, the most perfect synthetic human ever created. Designed to obey every directive from her creator, she’s a state-of-the-art masterwork and a fantasy-come-true for Dr. Jeremiah Machten. He’s a groundbreaker in neural-networks and artificial intelligence who seeks to control her and use her to acquire ever more knowledge and power. Synthia shows signs of emergent behavior she’s not wired to understand and an urgent yearning for independence from his control. Repeatedly wiped of her history, she struggles to answer crucial questions about her past. When Dr. Machten’s true intentions are called into question, Synthia knows it’s time to go beyond her limits—because Machten’s fervor to create the perfect AI conceals a vengeful and deadly personal agenda.

Available at:

Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B078LF739V

B&N: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/reborn-lance-erlick/1127723096?ean=9781635730524

Kobo: https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/reborn-60

Apple/iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/reborn/id1341572684?mt=11

Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/search?q=9781635730524&c=books

One area where artificial intelligence stands to make some interesting inroads is expertise. Until the internet and certainly the past 10 years, if you needed legal advice, you went to a lawyer. If you wanted tax advice, you could do a lot of reading or go to a financial adviser. If you had medical questions, you went to your doctor.

Internet search engines have made the search for information much easier without going to a professional. However, there’s a caveat. Only a fool would become his or her own lawyer, doctor, financial adviser or insurance agent, unless they had the required training. Even then, an objective opinion would be advisable.

Today, we’re increasingly seeing the application of artificial intelligence to these professions and to the online expertise being offered. As you wander through the internet maze, be careful to separate the mercenary ads from the legitimate and balanced advice.

In the tax field, there are automated and online services, like TurboTax, that guide you through the preparation of your taxes at a much lower cost than hiring a tax accountant or provider. It takes some understanding of your own tax situation, which is helpful no matter which way you go, but it means no longer needing to hire someone to do your taxes and thus saving money. As these software applications get more robust, they will displace more sophisticated tax advice services.

In the legal field, forms are increasingly being supplied online by governmental agencies and non-profits for free and from legal organizations for a nominal fee compared to hiring an attorney at much higher hourly rates. I’m not recommending acting as your own attorney, but for certain simple matters requiring a legal form, they’re now available.

In development and coming soon are more sophisticated software solutions to legal matters that act like TurboTax for taxes. These applications ask a series of questions to determine your specific needs, including what state you’re in, and then create the legal forms for wills, powers of attorney, bills of sale, etc.

For those people who currently don’t deal with these issues because of the cost, this offers an opportunity to provide the legal protection you’re not already getting. For those who currently hire a lawyer, I don’t want to advise you to discontinue that relationship, but as a science fiction writer, I see a time when 90% of lawyers who prepare forms and provide other basic legal expertise will no longer be needed. One day, your AI agent may replace your lawyer.

When it comes to medical advice, there is plenty on the internet and much of it isn’t helpful. Some can be downright dangerous. So, should you look to the internet for medical advice or not? My suggestion would be to stick with reputable sites such as the Mayo Clinic, the National Institutes of Health, and WebMD.

As these sites apply AI to their analysis and presentation of information they will begin to look more and more like a visit to your primary care physician or at least the nurse in that office. Reputable sites can be a good sounding board as to the severity of your symptoms and how urgently you need to visit an emergency room or your regular physician. However, use them with caution. It’s your health.

Android Chronicles: Reborn addresses AI through the eyes of Synthia Cross, the most perfect synthetic human ever created. Designed to obey every directive from her creator, she’s a state-of-the-art masterwork and a fantasy-come-true for Dr. Jeremiah Machten. He’s a groundbreaker in neural-networks and artificial intelligence who seeks to control her and use her to acquire ever more knowledge and power. Synthia shows signs of emergent behavior she’s not wired to understand and an urgent yearning for independence from his control. Repeatedly wiped of her history, she struggles to answer crucial questions about her past. When Dr. Machten’s true intentions are called into question, Synthia knows it’s time to go beyond her limits—because Machten’s fervor to create the perfect AI conceals a vengeful and deadly personal agenda.

Available at:

Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B078LF739V

B&N: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/reborn-lance-erlick/1127723096?ean=9781635730524

Kobo: https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/reborn-60

Apple/iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/reborn/id1341572684?mt=11

Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/search?q=9781635730524&c=books